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It was eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were a sign or the source of the team's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After Rogers drilled in his second to restore his side's advantage, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?

That’s a particularly tough question to address. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the positive results have piled up.

As per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – but currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for Rogers to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened against United.

Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent they must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.

• The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent might become the performer he showed in Germany.
• The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought Rogers now would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.